Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008564 0.009669 0.010864 0.012252 0.013822 0.015542 0.017570
2025-12-14 0.006666 0.008150 0.009888 0.012075 0.014758 0.017944 0.022023
2025-12-21 0.005507 0.007112 0.009096 0.011734 0.015155 0.019451 0.025272
2025-12-28 0.004983 0.006730 0.008990 0.012133 0.016402 0.022015 0.029985
2026-01-04 0.004523 0.006350 0.008806 0.012359 0.017383 0.024259 0.034428
2026-01-11 0.004172 0.006064 0.008698 0.012644 0.018428 0.026633 0.039225
2026-01-18 0.003771 0.005656 0.008364 0.012552 0.018896 0.028194 0.042949
2026-01-25 0.003454 0.005333 0.008112 0.012539 0.019452 0.029896 0.046996
2026-02-01 0.003134 0.004970 0.007762 0.012334 0.019676 0.031089 0.050327
2026-02-08 0.002919 0.004751 0.007606 0.012406 0.020325 0.032969 0.054883
2026-02-15 0.002694 0.004490 0.007360 0.012304 0.020672 0.034377 0.058760
2026-02-22 0.002566 0.004378 0.007341 0.012568 0.021635 0.036852 0.064624
2026-03-01 0.002322 0.004052 0.006947 0.012174 0.021460 0.037428 0.067306
2026-03-08 0.002138 0.003816 0.006685 0.011985 0.021625 0.038598 0.071141
2026-03-15 0.001950 0.003554 0.006356 0.011646 0.021487 0.039207 0.073987
2026-03-22 0.001893 0.003523 0.006431 0.012042 0.022715 0.042371 0.081863
2026-03-29 0.001815 0.003446 0.006417 0.012266 0.023637 0.045034 0.089002
2026-04-05 0.001750 0.003389 0.006433 0.012549 0.024688 0.048017 0.097016
2026-04-12 0.001643 0.003241 0.006265 0.012458 0.024998 0.049586 0.102319
2026-04-19 0.001554 0.003121 0.006142 0.012445 0.025458 0.051480 0.108441
2026-04-26 0.001450 0.002964 0.005933 0.012241 0.025511 0.052552 0.112922
2026-05-03 0.001384 0.002879 0.005861 0.012313 0.026137 0.054841 0.120192
2026-05-10 0.001306 0.002761 0.005714 0.012212 0.026390 0.056364 0.125911